Are people actually buying and selling homes during shelter in place?

While the real estate market has certainly slowed down over the last few weeks with significantly fewer new listings on the market than our typical Spring season, we've been very active helping our clients buy and sell homes during this time. We've represented eight families and couples buying or selling homes since mid-March when shelter in place (SIP) began, three of which have already closed escrow.

These recent transactions during SIP have presented some new obstacles and, at first, we had concerns about our ability to help clients and close transactions as normal. Fortunately, we've been able to adapt to new practices that are keeping everyone safe with drive by appraisals, mobile notaries and electronic recordings at the County. Showing new property is limited to vacant homes only under strict guidelines but now with property videos, Matterport 3D tours and virtual showings, we've been able to successfully give buyers a closer look into homes while practicing social distancing and limiting traffic.

Of note, three (two buyers, one seller) of our eight recent transactions went into contract without buyers gaining interior access to the home until in escrow. Our seller of 53 Meadow Drive in Mill Valley received multiple offers from buyers who had never entered the home and we sold the home for $55k over asking, which was quite impressive. Four more sets of our buyers got their offers accepted at or below the asking price, without bidding wars.

Where else in the country during a worldwide pandemic would this happen? Perhaps only the Bay Area.

Own Marin recent sales during SIP:

Pending: 336 Shoreline Hwy, Mill Valley | Buyer
Represented

Our clients fell in love with the photos, virtual tour and floor plan they saw online. Wanting to make an offer, we arranged an in-person showing of this vacant home while meeting all social distancing guidelines. After one day on the market we submitted a preemptive offer, under the asking price and now our buyers are in contract on their dream home without having to compete.

Screen+Shot+2020-04-20+at+11.29.35+AM.jpg — Pending: 88 Oak Knoll Ave, San Anselmo |
Buyer Represented

Launched on the market one week prior to SIP, 88 Oak Knoll ended up sitting on the market as buyers became uncertain about the market. After 22 days on the market, we helped our buyers seize the opportunity to get their offer accepted below the asking price and without having to compete for their dream home in this walk-to-town San Anselmo location.

216MorningSun 01 MLS.jpg — Pending Off-MLS: 216 Morning Sun, Mill Valley |
Buyer Represented

This home went into contract off-market prior to SIP but as the market shifted the previous buyer was unable to follow through with the purchase. After viewing photos of home and walking around the yard, our clients new this was their home. We immediately got them into contract as soon as the other escrow was cancelled. Our buyers are now in contract on their dream home at the asking price on a property that would have received multiple offers on the market.

Pending Off-MLS: 450 Hillside, Mill Valley |
Buyer Represented

Our clients had the opportunity to tour this property when it was on the market for $3,995,000 last year but felt it was overpriced. It was later reduced to $3,675,000 and finally, after 118 days on the market it was withdrawn from the MLS in January. With new market uncertainty, we helped our buyers write an offer and they’re now in contract well under the most recent asking price.

145 Harvard Drive-5.jpg — Sold: 145 Harvard Drive, Larkspur $1.975M |
Seller Represented

The week prior to SIP we received two strong offers on our listing in Hillview Gardens. As the market shifted with SIP, the buyer in escrow was unable to follow through with the purchase. We were able to immediately get the second buyer into escrow at the same price, $75k over asking.

53+Meadow+Drive%2C+Mill+Valley+-IMG_8254-+Listed+by+Allie+Fornesi+Top+Mill+Valley+Realtor.jpg — Sold Off-MLS: 53 Meadow Drive, Mill Valley |
Seller Represented

Scheduled to hit the market one week after SIP began, our plans for our desirable Mill Valley came to a halt. We quickly shifted gears and explored ways to sell the home virtually, off-market. One week after marketing the home to our agent network we received two incredible offers from buyers who had never stepped foot in the home. Five days later the property sold for $55k over asking and set a price per square foot record in the neighborhood.

8+Edna.jpg — Pending Off-MLS: 8 Edna Court, Kentfield |
Buyer Represented

This vacant home was being held off-market until SIP lifts so we were able to get our buyers safely inside. We wrote an offer under asking and the seller accepted! Our client didn't have to compete for a home in a perfect Kentfield flats location in walking distance to schools, trails, shopping and more.

Sold Off-MLS: 101 Valley Circle, Mill Valley | Seller Represented

Preparing to go on the market in April, we quickly shifted gears once we learned that Marin was soon to be ordered to shelter in place. Through our agent network, we were able to secure strong offers a few days before SIP. The home sold for $125k over the asking price at $1,132 per square foot.

We've been asked countless times what we think the market will look like in a month or two and the truth is, we don't know, but with low inventory and high buyer demand (especially from buyers eager to get out of San Francisco), we don't think anything crazy is going to happen.

In order for prices to drop, the number of sellers would need to exceed the number of buyers. During SIP, we're seeing more opportunities to negotiate prices with motivated sellers who are unsure of the future market. These opportunities usually occur if the home is sitting on the market or is getting few showing requests off-market. Once SIP is gradually lifted, there will be a flood of new listings coming on the market and Spring sellers will become Summer sellers.

We're also seeing many buyers, including our clients, currently taking a "wait and see" approach, and thinking they may get an opportunity to get a property at a lower price. Sure, that could happen, but with the amount of buyers that were already in the market, in addition to many young families and professionals now looking to get out of San Francisco, we're expecting demand to remain high, especially on desirable homes in sought-after neighborhoods. However, there could be an opportunity to get properties closer to or below the asking price if we see a spike in inventory and buyers dispersing among properties, creating less competition on any single property.

Additionally, in order for prices to drop, we'd need to see buyer demand drop which would be driven by job loss, reduced buying power or skepticism on the economic outlook. We don't see this being a problem in Marin and only a couple of our clients have put their home search on pause. The rest of our buyers remain very eager to purchase a home and want to take advantage of historically low interest rates. Right now, a 30-year fixed or jumbo mortgage is at 3.25%-3.375%, and a 7/1 ARM is at 2.625%.

Lastly, for all of you home buyers out there, we wanted to share a few incredible listings below that can be purchased off-market during SIP. They are vacant and legally showable to serious buyers who are willing to exercise all virtual viewing options and sign COVID-19 liability waivers.

Normally, we'd say let's go on tour! Now, please take an extra minute to see some awesome 3D tours of homes. If you have any questions about the protocol in place to ensure safe showings of vacant homes in compliance with the Marin County Health Department's order, please let us know. We hope you have an awesome week!